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Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2014
Chart 1: Convergence and divergence of GDP per capita in the EU (1995–2013)
Dispersion Averages
100 90 35000
90 80 30000
80 70 25000
70 60 20000
% %
60 50 15000 Average EU-28 EU-15 North
EU-15 South EU-13 North
50 40 10000 EU-15 Centre EU-13 South
40 30 5000
30 20 0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Reading note: σ values refer to the coefficient of variation (based on weighted averages) and are reported on the left scale. The share of between zones
variance in total variance is reported on the right axis.
Source: Eurostat, calculations DG EMPL.
Notes: GDP in real terms (in euros); the share of inter groups variance is based on uneweithted averages by zone (see annex). Some missing values in the
beginning of the period were kept constant for the calculation of dispersion and averages: BG, EE, HR, CY, MT (1995-99), LV (1995-98), EL, LT, SK (1995-97), PL,
RO (1995-96), HU, SI (1995).
Chart 2: Decomposition of the GDP per capita gap to EU-28 average for two EU-13 zones (1995–2013)
EU-13 Centre and North EU-13 South and periphery
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
-30 -30
% -40 Active age population Productivity Employment % -40 Active age population Productivity Employment
-50 -50
-60 -60
-70 -70
-80 -80
-90 -90
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Eurostat, calculations DG EMPL.
Notes: Calculations based on GDP in real terms, in euros. Some missing values in the beginning of the period were kept constant for the calculation of averages:
BG, EE, HR, CY, MT (1995-99), LV (1995-98), LT, SK (1995-97), PL, RO (1995-96), HU, SI (1995).
Slow GDPpc convergence mainly since around 2005 (and to a lesser (apparent employment productivity GDP);
reflecting adverse developments extent since the early 2000s). EU-15 Cen - employment (share in employment of
in EU-15 South and periphery tre GDPpc levels remained broadly sta- the active age population); and active
ble in comparison to EU-28 (and actually age population (share of the active age
The dispersion of GDP per head since gained some ground in recent years) and population from the overall population).
1995 in Europe has been fairly stable, EU-15 North GDPpc remained broadly
with some strong convergence within stable (also reflecting potential changes Gradual catching up of GDPpc
EU-13 (reflecting the catching-up pro- in exchange rate against the Euro). by the newer Member States,
cess) and some slightly divergent trends reflecting quicker productivity
in EU-15. This overall stability in EU-28 While the gradual catching up process of gains
reflected a pre-crisis decline in between- EU-13 appears consistent with that of pre -
zones dispersion, which came to a halt vious decades ( 11 ), developments since the Since 1995, the gap in GDP per head
when the 2008 crisis hit and reversed in mid-2000s, particularly in EU-15 Southern between EU-13 and EU-28 narrowed,
relative terms (see Chart 1a). and periphery zone, appear atypical. mainly reflecting productivity gains. Over
the period, this progressive catching up
More specifically, in EU-13 (both Centre The GDP per head developments can process actually impacted more on the
and North, as well as South and periph- be split into three different effects (see decline in the gap to the EU-28 average
ery zones) a catching up since 1995 is Box 1), focusing on trends in: productivity GDPpc than employment rates and active
observed (Chart 1b). In EU-15, develop- population rates. However, the contribution
ments of GDPpc have been more hetero- ( ) See, for instance, Barro and Sala-i-Martin from the share of the active age popula-
11
geneous, with EU-15 South losing ground (1991) or Sala-i-Martin (1996). tion remained positive over the period, and
206
Chart 1: Convergence and divergence of GDP per capita in the EU (1995–2013)
Dispersion Averages
100 90 35000
90 80 30000
80 70 25000
70 60 20000
% %
60 50 15000 Average EU-28 EU-15 North
EU-15 South EU-13 North
50 40 10000 EU-15 Centre EU-13 South
40 30 5000
30 20 0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Reading note: σ values refer to the coefficient of variation (based on weighted averages) and are reported on the left scale. The share of between zones
variance in total variance is reported on the right axis.
Source: Eurostat, calculations DG EMPL.
Notes: GDP in real terms (in euros); the share of inter groups variance is based on uneweithted averages by zone (see annex). Some missing values in the
beginning of the period were kept constant for the calculation of dispersion and averages: BG, EE, HR, CY, MT (1995-99), LV (1995-98), EL, LT, SK (1995-97), PL,
RO (1995-96), HU, SI (1995).
Chart 2: Decomposition of the GDP per capita gap to EU-28 average for two EU-13 zones (1995–2013)
EU-13 Centre and North EU-13 South and periphery
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
-30 -30
% -40 Active age population Productivity Employment % -40 Active age population Productivity Employment
-50 -50
-60 -60
-70 -70
-80 -80
-90 -90
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Eurostat, calculations DG EMPL.
Notes: Calculations based on GDP in real terms, in euros. Some missing values in the beginning of the period were kept constant for the calculation of averages:
BG, EE, HR, CY, MT (1995-99), LV (1995-98), LT, SK (1995-97), PL, RO (1995-96), HU, SI (1995).
Slow GDPpc convergence mainly since around 2005 (and to a lesser (apparent employment productivity GDP);
reflecting adverse developments extent since the early 2000s). EU-15 Cen - employment (share in employment of
in EU-15 South and periphery tre GDPpc levels remained broadly sta- the active age population); and active
ble in comparison to EU-28 (and actually age population (share of the active age
The dispersion of GDP per head since gained some ground in recent years) and population from the overall population).
1995 in Europe has been fairly stable, EU-15 North GDPpc remained broadly
with some strong convergence within stable (also reflecting potential changes Gradual catching up of GDPpc
EU-13 (reflecting the catching-up pro- in exchange rate against the Euro). by the newer Member States,
cess) and some slightly divergent trends reflecting quicker productivity
in EU-15. This overall stability in EU-28 While the gradual catching up process of gains
reflected a pre-crisis decline in between- EU-13 appears consistent with that of pre -
zones dispersion, which came to a halt vious decades ( 11 ), developments since the Since 1995, the gap in GDP per head
when the 2008 crisis hit and reversed in mid-2000s, particularly in EU-15 Southern between EU-13 and EU-28 narrowed,
relative terms (see Chart 1a). and periphery zone, appear atypical. mainly reflecting productivity gains. Over
the period, this progressive catching up
More specifically, in EU-13 (both Centre The GDP per head developments can process actually impacted more on the
and North, as well as South and periph- be split into three different effects (see decline in the gap to the EU-28 average
ery zones) a catching up since 1995 is Box 1), focusing on trends in: productivity GDPpc than employment rates and active
observed (Chart 1b). In EU-15, develop- population rates. However, the contribution
ments of GDPpc have been more hetero- ( ) See, for instance, Barro and Sala-i-Martin from the share of the active age popula-
11
geneous, with EU-15 South losing ground (1991) or Sala-i-Martin (1996). tion remained positive over the period, and
206
