Page 36 - Mobile World Daily - Day One

ANALYSIS | 4G

Calum Dewar,
Forecasting Manager, GSMA Intelligence
www.gsmaintelligence.com

One in ten mobile
connections running
on 4G by year-end

Migration to 4G is happening at a Figure 1: Share of 4G deployments by frequency band, by region all connections on 4G by the end of 2014.
rapid rate but is dependent on (January 2015) As with their counterparts in the US (45 per
operators getting timely access to the cent 4G adoption in Q4 2014), Japan (42
right spectrum per cent) and Australia (38 per cent),
operators in these markets were assigned
There were 352 live commercial 4G almost half (47 per cent) of the world’s 4G CHINA DRIVING A MAJOR SHIFT IN spectrum for 4G far in advance of many
networks globally as of the end of connections at the end of 2014, largely due to THE 4G LANDSCAPE other regions. However, South Korean
January 2015, with more than half of substantial 4G bases in China, South Korea operators LG Uplus (79 per cent 4G
the world’s mobile markets (124) covered by and Japan. Similarly, Northern America The Asia Pacific 4G market is being driven to adoption in Q4 2014), KT (60 per cent) and
at least one 4G operator. This represents an accounted for around a third (32 per cent) of a great extent by China’s (and the world’s) SK Telecom (59 per cent) head up the list of
increase of 88 networks compared to the all 4G connections, compared to just 14 per largest operator, China Mobile, which the world’s top ten operators in terms of 4G
same point in 2014. Meanwhile, the number cent for Europe. accounted for three in every ten new 4G adoption as the relatively small land mass
of 4G connections worldwide more than connections worldwide during 2014. After of the country allowed them to quickly
doubled between 2013 and 2014, from 200 launching its TD-LTE service at the end of reach nationwide coverage.
million to around half a billion (490 million), December 2013, a combination of aggressive
meaning that seven per cent of the world’s network rollout (410,000 base stations by Q2 GETTING THE RIGHT 4G SPECTRUM
cellular connections (excluding M2M) were 2014) and competitive handset and tariff
on 4G by the end of 2014, compared to just pricing – combined with the stalling of its The pioneering 4G markets demonstrate
three per cent a year earlier. By the end of domestic rivals’ 4G launches - resulted in the how the principal driver of 4G adoption is 4G
2015 we expect that more than ten per cent of operator’s 4G base reaching 90 million by the coverage, which is in turn driven by the
connections globally will be on 4G, with this end of 2014, making it the world’s largest 4G timing, type and amount of spectrum
share rising to more than three in every ten operator by some distance. At current growth licenced for 4G services. South Korea, the
connections by 2020. rates, we expect China’s 4G base to treble to US, Japan and Australia have all benefitted
300 million by the end of 2015, comfortably from supportive regulatory frameworks that
Europe is home to the most 4G networks overtaking the US. assigned spectrum for 4G use at an early
with more than 30 per cent of the total (108), stage, whereas in Europe, where 4G adoption
followed by Asia Pacific (66), Latin America In terms of 4G connections as a per stood at just 10 per cent in Q4 2014,
(55) and Northern America (47). However, centage of total connections, the most assignment of spectrum occurred at a slower
while Asia Pacific accounts for only one in six relevant metric on which to measure 4G rate. The type of spectrum assigned is also
of the world’s 4G networks, it was home to adoption, South Korea is some way ahead important; for example, despite the size of
of the rest of the world with two thirds of the country, Verizon Wireless in the US was
ABOUT GSMA INTELLIGENCE able to reach 97 per cent population
coverage within three years of launch due to
GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, its initial assignment of low frequency, high
analysis and forecasts; and a publisher of authoritative industry reports propagation ‘coverage band’ spectrum in the
and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO 700 MHz range.
in every country worldwide – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the
most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising While the presence of 13 separate bands
tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. demonstrates an initial lack of
GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, harmonisation at the global level, the
financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic clustering around the digital dividend bands
decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as (700 MHz, 800 MHz), the refarmed 1800
an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by MHz band and the IMT-extension band
the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular shows the progress that has been made
thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. towards regional spectrum harmonisation.
Between them, these three bands account
for three quarters of all 4G networks
currently in operation.

PAGE 36 Monday 2nd March MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS DAILY 2015 | www.mobileworldcongress.com