Page 34 - Mobile World Daily - Day One

ANALYSIS | MOBILE INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS

David Evans,
Lead Analyst, GSMA Intelligence
www.gsmaintelligence.com

Tracking the world’s
mobile internet
subscribers

Half of the world's population will be internet services 2020 — reaching a near Mobile internet subscribers and penetration in China, 2013
subscribed to mobile internet services saturated level.
by 2020 1.23 billion 1.13 billion 630 million 130 million 500 million 630 million 1.39 billion
3G/4G now represents the majority of
New research from GSMA Intelligence internet subscribers. In 2012 the number of 89%
enables insight into the pace at which mobile internet subscribers that predominantly
mobile subscribers worldwide are use 3G or 4G technologies surpassed those penetration
migrating from traditional mobile services predominantly using 2G. By 2020, 3G/4G is
such as voice and SMS across to mobile forecast to account for nearly 80 per cent of of which, 69%
internet services, underlining how mobile is mobile internet subscribers. However, over 800 mobile broadband
now the primary method of getting online for million mobile internet subscribers will still be
many. reliant on 2G technology to access internet 81% / 1.79 = 46%
content in 2020 — a significant subscriber base
Mobile internet subscribers are forecast to that content and service providers will need to penetration SIM cards penetration
reach 3.8 billion globally in 2020. At the end continu e to serve.
of 2013, it is estimated that 2.2 billion unique 2.03 1.18 36% 46%
subscribers had used mobile internet Total connection numbers or internet-
services. By 2020, this number is forecast to capable connections can be a misleading urban rural penetration penetration
rise by 1.6 billion to reach 3.8 billion mobile metric in terms of measuring mobile internet (includes
internet subscribers globally — equivalent to usage. Multiple subscriptions, definitional 70% 30% fixed and
half of the global population differences or a focus purely on 3G+ mobile)
technologies can generate widely different
Developing markets are forecast to drive estimates. (share of connections)
the majority of growth. Mobile internet
subscribers in developing markets are Research by GSMA Intelligence has Registered Active Average number Unique Voice and Mobile Internet users Total
forecast to double from 1.5 billion to 3.0 enabled the disaggregation of total of connections mobile text-only internet population population
billion in 2020. Meanwhile, in developed connections into unique subscribers and mobile mobile per subscriber subscribers subscribers subscribers (2013)
markets, it is forecast that 87 per cent of subsequently unique mobile internet (2013)
unique subscribers will have used mobile subscribers. As a result, this dataset helps to connections connections
establish the proportion of subscribers that
Source: GSMA Intelligence, CNNIC, UN

ABOUT GSMA INTELLIGENCE have actually used the mobile internet, rather The research also shows that 31 per cent of
than simply having the technology available mobile internet subscribers in the country
GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, to do so. access mobile internet services via non-
analysis and forecasts; and a publisher of authoritative industry reports mobile broadband networks (i.e, 2G), adding
and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO Using China as an example, we can see that up to around 155 million subscribers. Cost of
in every country worldwide – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the China was home to 630 million unique mobile ownership and access to mobile broadband
most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising subscribers (at the end of 2013) actively using network coverage are likely to be the key
tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. more than one billion active SIM connections. reasons for this. Nonetheless the vast
GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, This shows that ‘real’ mobile penetration majority of mobile internet subscribers in
financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic based on subscribers (i.e, people) currently China (69 per cent) access internet services
decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as stands at 46 per cent of the population in via mobile broadband networks (3G/4G).
an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by China, whereas the industry reported almost
the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular 90 per cent penetration based on connections The China Internet Network Information
thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. (i.e, SIM cards). Center (CNNIC) reported that in 2013, the
share of individuals using the internet (fixed
Our research then showed that in 2013, or mobile) in the country reached 45.8 per
almost four in five unique subscribers in cent, adding up to over 600 million
China use mobile internet services, adding up individuals. Using this metric as a proxy, we
to 499.5 million mobile internet subscribers. can therefore claim that amongst all internet
This also means that around 130 million subscribers in China, more than 80 per cent
unique subscribers in China do not use (about five in six) access the internet via
mobile internet services for a variety of mobile, highlighting the critical role that
reasons - including cost of ownership – and mobile networks play in connecting the
only use their mobile connections to place population to the internet.
voice calls or send text messages.

PAGE 34 Monday 2nd March MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS DAILY 2015 | www.mobileworldcongress.com