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Chapter 3: The future of work in Europe: job quality and work organisation for a smart, sustainable and inclusive growth
change and the general greening of the (e.g. to compete with countries with an innovation. It then discusses the role
economy. The section assesses to what abundant supply of low-skilled workers). of labour market policies in tempering
extent labour market polices can rein- Such adverse outcomes may, in turn, labour market polarisation driven by
force positive developments and prevent have negative feedback on productivity technological progress.
or correct adverse outcomes associated and labour market participation if they
with those changes and which are to reduce workers’ commitment, motiva- 4.1.1. Technology change
a large extent conditioned by labour tion, abilities and upward job mobility. and innovation will change
market institutions (e.g. social dialogue the job landscape of the future
mechanisms, wage bargaining systems, The section then focuses on the oppor- and can render jobs obsolete
minimum wages schemes, employment tunities and challenges for job quality
protection legislation, unemployment brought about by an ageing population Technological progress is a key defin-
insurance, active labour market policies and high youth unemployment. These ing factor in how goods and services
and life-long learning) and the business developments pose some important are produced and delivered to consum-
54
cycle ( ). labour market policy challenges related ers. The fact that production processes
to active ageing, gender equality, work- are changing is by no means new, but
This section starts by assessing the private life balance and discrimination, the speed of that change may be. It can
extent to which further innovation in which may have a negative impact take decades for a new invention to be
information and communications tech- on employment and productivity if applied, but when it is applied, changes
accelerate. The typewriter was invented
nologies (ICT) and key enabling technolo - they hinder the optimal allocation
gies (KETs)( ) may affect job quality. It of resources. in the 1860s but was not introduced
55
th
focus on the job quality potential of an into the office until the early 20 cen-
industrial renaissance, the role of small Finally, the section explores the policy tury, when it joined a wave of mecha-
and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the challenges and opportunities related nisation, with Dictaphones, calculators,
risk that skill and talent biased techno- to job quality in the transition to a mimeo machines, address machines, and
logical progress may involve an unequal greener economy. The shift to a green the predecessor of the computer — the
distribution of the costs and benefits and resource-efficient economy is keypunch (Frey and Osborne, 2013, after
between low and medium-skilled work- above all an opportunity to support Beniger, 1986; Cortada, 2000). There are
ers and high-skilled workers. In other sustainable and high-quality employ- many signs that the cumulative effect
words, technological progress has strong ment, while contributing to the recovery of advancements in information shar-
potential to improve productivity but may from the recent economic crisis. How- ing, computing power, machine learn-
have a polarising effect in terms of job ever, better targeting and coordination ing, machine vision and data mining will
quality, impeding further technological of labour market measures and tools soon accelerate the changes in terms of
progress and productivity growth and are essential in order to create the nec- the types of jobs that are needed, how
generating inequalities. essary conditions to bridge skill gaps rewarding these jobs are and the requi-
and overcome labour shortages, man- site organisational arrangements.
Next, the section looks at globalisation age restructuring, anticipate change
(associated with changes in interna- and emerging health and safety risks In the not-so-distant past the switch-
tional trade, foreign direct investment (especially for low-skilled manual work- board operator became obsolete due to
and labour mobility) and its potential to ers), and ensure gender balance. These direct number dialling, the copy typist
increase productivity and hence earnings. may have an important impact on work- gave way to personal word processing,
Again, costs may be incurred primarily ers’ performance and participation in the bank teller was replaced by cash
by the most vulnerable workers, such as the production of new green goods machines, the travel agent fell prey to
the low-skilled and employees on tem- and services. online booking systems and many car
porary contracts. They may experience assembly line workers were replaced
stronger job insecurity (e.g. due to off- 4.1. The two sides of by industrial robots. Deindustrialisation
shoring or relocation) and lower wages knowledge and technology- and relocation to low-cost countries have
intensive growth been shaping the economic landscape
54
( ) A macroeconomic downturn may reduce job and labour markets of the high-income
quality through: lower job security, lower This subsection focuses on challenges countries over the past forty or so years.
skill formation, stronger health and safety
risks, more involuntary temporary/part-time posed by technological progress on job A long-term decline of heavy industries
labour contracts, distorted work-private life quality. It starts by assessing the increas - such as mining or steel production has
and gender balances (e.g. Eurofound, 2012a;
RWI, 2014; Tahlin, 2013; Dieckhoff, 2014; ing importance of knowledge and crea- been observed, while specialised high-
Johnson, 2012; McGinnity and Russel, 2013; tivity in the future labour market and the tech industries have been holding ground
Ravn and Sterk, 2013; Gallie, 2014).
( ) Key enabling technologies (KETs) enable the risks associated with the automation of even if employing fewer workers per out -
55
development of new goods and services tasks, such as jobs losses and labour put (automotive manufacturing being
and the restructuring of industrial processes market polarisation. It investigates the one of many examples).
needed to modernise EU industry and make
the transition to a knowledge-based and extent to which an industrial renais-
low-carbon resource-efficient economy. sance associated with the potential for However, current changes are expected
They play an important role in the R&D,
innovation and cluster strategies of many further innovations in ICT and KETs has to have a stronger and polarising impact
industries. More particularly, KETs cover the ability to generate more and better on labour markets (e.g. Acemoglu and
micro-/nano-electronics, nanotechnology,
photonics, advanced materials, industrial jobs. It looks at the role of SMEs and Autor, 2010; Eurofound, 2013). Currently,
biotechnology and advanced manufacturing the challenges they face in improving technology is changing the face of edu-
technologies. See European Commission
(2012b) and HLGKET (2010). job quality in the context of technology cation through online lectures classes
149
change and the general greening of the (e.g. to compete with countries with an innovation. It then discusses the role
economy. The section assesses to what abundant supply of low-skilled workers). of labour market policies in tempering
extent labour market polices can rein- Such adverse outcomes may, in turn, labour market polarisation driven by
force positive developments and prevent have negative feedback on productivity technological progress.
or correct adverse outcomes associated and labour market participation if they
with those changes and which are to reduce workers’ commitment, motiva- 4.1.1. Technology change
a large extent conditioned by labour tion, abilities and upward job mobility. and innovation will change
market institutions (e.g. social dialogue the job landscape of the future
mechanisms, wage bargaining systems, The section then focuses on the oppor- and can render jobs obsolete
minimum wages schemes, employment tunities and challenges for job quality
protection legislation, unemployment brought about by an ageing population Technological progress is a key defin-
insurance, active labour market policies and high youth unemployment. These ing factor in how goods and services
and life-long learning) and the business developments pose some important are produced and delivered to consum-
54
cycle ( ). labour market policy challenges related ers. The fact that production processes
to active ageing, gender equality, work- are changing is by no means new, but
This section starts by assessing the private life balance and discrimination, the speed of that change may be. It can
extent to which further innovation in which may have a negative impact take decades for a new invention to be
information and communications tech- on employment and productivity if applied, but when it is applied, changes
accelerate. The typewriter was invented
nologies (ICT) and key enabling technolo - they hinder the optimal allocation
gies (KETs)( ) may affect job quality. It of resources. in the 1860s but was not introduced
55
th
focus on the job quality potential of an into the office until the early 20 cen-
industrial renaissance, the role of small Finally, the section explores the policy tury, when it joined a wave of mecha-
and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the challenges and opportunities related nisation, with Dictaphones, calculators,
risk that skill and talent biased techno- to job quality in the transition to a mimeo machines, address machines, and
logical progress may involve an unequal greener economy. The shift to a green the predecessor of the computer — the
distribution of the costs and benefits and resource-efficient economy is keypunch (Frey and Osborne, 2013, after
between low and medium-skilled work- above all an opportunity to support Beniger, 1986; Cortada, 2000). There are
ers and high-skilled workers. In other sustainable and high-quality employ- many signs that the cumulative effect
words, technological progress has strong ment, while contributing to the recovery of advancements in information shar-
potential to improve productivity but may from the recent economic crisis. How- ing, computing power, machine learn-
have a polarising effect in terms of job ever, better targeting and coordination ing, machine vision and data mining will
quality, impeding further technological of labour market measures and tools soon accelerate the changes in terms of
progress and productivity growth and are essential in order to create the nec- the types of jobs that are needed, how
generating inequalities. essary conditions to bridge skill gaps rewarding these jobs are and the requi-
and overcome labour shortages, man- site organisational arrangements.
Next, the section looks at globalisation age restructuring, anticipate change
(associated with changes in interna- and emerging health and safety risks In the not-so-distant past the switch-
tional trade, foreign direct investment (especially for low-skilled manual work- board operator became obsolete due to
and labour mobility) and its potential to ers), and ensure gender balance. These direct number dialling, the copy typist
increase productivity and hence earnings. may have an important impact on work- gave way to personal word processing,
Again, costs may be incurred primarily ers’ performance and participation in the bank teller was replaced by cash
by the most vulnerable workers, such as the production of new green goods machines, the travel agent fell prey to
the low-skilled and employees on tem- and services. online booking systems and many car
porary contracts. They may experience assembly line workers were replaced
stronger job insecurity (e.g. due to off- 4.1. The two sides of by industrial robots. Deindustrialisation
shoring or relocation) and lower wages knowledge and technology- and relocation to low-cost countries have
intensive growth been shaping the economic landscape
54
( ) A macroeconomic downturn may reduce job and labour markets of the high-income
quality through: lower job security, lower This subsection focuses on challenges countries over the past forty or so years.
skill formation, stronger health and safety
risks, more involuntary temporary/part-time posed by technological progress on job A long-term decline of heavy industries
labour contracts, distorted work-private life quality. It starts by assessing the increas - such as mining or steel production has
and gender balances (e.g. Eurofound, 2012a;
RWI, 2014; Tahlin, 2013; Dieckhoff, 2014; ing importance of knowledge and crea- been observed, while specialised high-
Johnson, 2012; McGinnity and Russel, 2013; tivity in the future labour market and the tech industries have been holding ground
Ravn and Sterk, 2013; Gallie, 2014).
( ) Key enabling technologies (KETs) enable the risks associated with the automation of even if employing fewer workers per out -
55
development of new goods and services tasks, such as jobs losses and labour put (automotive manufacturing being
and the restructuring of industrial processes market polarisation. It investigates the one of many examples).
needed to modernise EU industry and make
the transition to a knowledge-based and extent to which an industrial renais-
low-carbon resource-efficient economy. sance associated with the potential for However, current changes are expected
They play an important role in the R&D,
innovation and cluster strategies of many further innovations in ICT and KETs has to have a stronger and polarising impact
industries. More particularly, KETs cover the ability to generate more and better on labour markets (e.g. Acemoglu and
micro-/nano-electronics, nanotechnology,
photonics, advanced materials, industrial jobs. It looks at the role of SMEs and Autor, 2010; Eurofound, 2013). Currently,
biotechnology and advanced manufacturing the challenges they face in improving technology is changing the face of edu-
technologies. See European Commission
(2012b) and HLGKET (2010). job quality in the context of technology cation through online lectures classes
149
