Page 37 - Mobile World Daily - Day 3

M2M | ANALYSIS
Sylwia Kechiche,
Lead Analyst, M2M, GSMA Intelligence
www.gsmaintelligence.com
Unlocking growth
in cellular M2M
Cellular M2M connections are
forecast to reach one billion by 2020,
but could be a lot higher if certain
conditions are met
GSMA Intelligence has recently
published a comprehensive forecast
of the global cellular M2M market,
based on extensive conversations with
industry players and an in-depth analysis of
current and future trends. Our coverage of
the M2M market focuses on cellular M2M
connectivity and excludes computing devices
in consumer electronics such as
smartphones, e-readers, tablets, as well as
other types of M2M connection technologies
that support the wider universe of the
Internet of Things (IoT).
Our research shows that at the current rate
of trajectory, global cellular M2M
connections will reach close to one billion by
2020, growing at 25 per cent per year (CAGR)
over the period 2015 to 2020. However,
upside forecast scenarios could emerge if a
number of the current growth inhibitors are
addressed by both the industry players and
governments.
AN EXPERT VIEW ON GROWTH
LEVERS
In order to gain insight into the potential
uplift of the cellular M2M connections
growth opportunity, GSMA Intelligence
conducted a survey across a number of
industry experts and identified the following
growth drivers:
1.Low power wide area opportunities
Low data use cases are seen by survey
respondents as the lever with the most
potential to contribute to the uplift in the
number of cellular connections in 2020.
Applications within verticals such as utilities, The impact of government policy on cellular
smart cities and agriculture are all cases that
require low data and low power elements,
and present a significant opportunity for
operators. Operational business models and
established technological solution standards
are still to be defined for low power low data
use cases.
MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS DAILY 2015 | www.mobileworldcongress.com
Figure 1: Cellular M2M connections forecast scenarios
2.Connected consumer goods
Growth in the connected consumer goods
sector depends on whether cellular is used at
point of aggregation or for point-to-point
(P2P) connectivity. In the short term, the
cellular business model remains challenging
in the connected consumer goods space in
terms of:
• Establishing partnerships with consumer
goods manufacturers
• Engaging with existing industry alliances to
support development of open
standards/protocols
• Developing the right business models
• Establishing appropriate channels to
market
• Battery life of devices
• Price and size of modules
3.Government policy
M2M connections growth varies by
geography but in general it is seen as a
credible growth driver. However, delays in
rolling out policies inhibit the connection
growth opportunity. Government policies can
“value” i.e. insightful information analytics
from Big Data there is a need for cross-
vertical presence and cross-vertical data
mining
5.End-to-end security
The risk of having M2M data hacked and
leaked is far too great in terms of damaging
trust between end-users and providers for
doubts over security to exist. Consequently,
end-to-end (E2E) security has a marginal
effect on cellular M2M connections growth as
consumers will expect it as an absolute
minimum. Survey respondents pointed to the
fact that without partnerships between
entities in the M2M ecosystem, E2E security
cannot be assured - it is clear that operators,
alone, are unable to provide for entire value
chain.
Source: GSMA Intelligence 6.Business models
The respondents highlighted that the
have a stronger impact if the implementation development of sustainable M2M business
of regulation is more timely and led by a few models will be a significant factor in driving
countries championing specific regulations. the increase in M2M adoption for operators.
They have indicated the following
4.Big Data analytics recommendations for operators to consider
Big Data is not seen as a connections driver putting in practice:
itself in the short term. However, there is
strong correlation between achieving large 1. Move away from being product focused to
scale deployment of M2M devices and Big being more service focused
Data, with interviewees indicating that to get
2. Work with relevant ecosystem partners e.g.
manufacturers and suppliers
3. Utilise Big Data analytics over time
ABOUT GSMA INTELLIGENCE
GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data,
analysis and forecasts; and a publisher of authoritative industry reports
and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO
in every country worldwide – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the
most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising
tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily.
GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators,
financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic
decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as
an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by
the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular
thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics.
Wednesday 4th March PAGE 37